Noosa Waters Share Investing

DEAN FERGIE Cyan Investment Management 3 days ago Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? Automotive Holdings (ASX:AHG) issued a downgraded earnings report this week, joining fellow automotive retailers AP Eagers (ASX:APE), Automotive Solutions (ASX:4WD) and Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL), all of which have all guided expectations down in the just past month. With this cohort experiencing an average price fall of over 25% in the past four weeks alone, investors should be asking themselves if the era of the automobile (and auto related investment) is coming to an end. Australia's car sales statistics have been impressive over the past 9 years, particularly in light of the benign economic backdrop. Monthly New Motor Vehicle Sales - having dipped to 74,000 in November 2008 during the height of the GFC - have risen steadily, topping out at just over 100,000 (seasonally adjusted) in September 2016. However, as this ABS graph shows, there has been a...

The following article comes from Marcus Today earlier this week The AFR (Jonathan Shapiro) runs  an interesting article today about a flip flop wearing $20bn fund manager  in Laguna Beach that has outperformed their global stock market benchmark by 5% pa since 2008 returning 12.8% pa. I have slightly edited this. They say their investment process is to focus on companies with "expanding moats" that have the culture to succeed over the long term. “Every business's competitive advantage is getting weaker or stronger. Instead of looking for wide moat businesses we are looking for ones where we can make the case that, five or 10 years out, the competitive advantage is getting bigger. We call that 'moat trajectory’ and if you get that 'moat trajectory' right, any of the discounted cashflow work is going to look ludicrously conservative. By the same token, if that moat is retreating, they're out, no matter how fantastic the company. The  five most danger...

Following on from Mondays meeting I received the following link this morning regarding the Nearmap presentation for Goldman Sachs clients.  Click Here

A different take on the markets from Platinum Capital ( a renowned contrarian investment manager). Link to video follows   https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/this-is-when-money-is-made-in-markets

The following article appeared in the AFR on the 24 April 2017 I normally don't pay much attention to boutique investment managers masquerading  as journalists, but I have a high regard for Steve Johnson from Forager. In fact I have been waiting to invest in the LIC he manages since its IPO case but the share price premim to NTA is too high. "Outside Telstra's core fixed and mobile segments, there is little to speak of that could move the dial when it comes to earnings.  by  Steve Johnson In July 2008, Vittorio Colao was appointed as the fourth CEO in Vodafone Group's history. His revised strategy for the British-based multinational telecoms company was to focus on key markets where it held a top two position and pursue market consolidation where it didn't. The changes had profound impacts in Australia. A subsequent lack of investment in Vodafone's Australian joint venture with Hutchison led to a period of management and network i...

Newsletters http://www.marcustoday.com.au  (Paid) I rate this one highly. It is produced twice daily, covering the normal macro news every broker sends out each week day morning, plus commentary on stocks in the news. It suits both investors and traders. The first edition is followed by an end of day summary. They include both fundamental and technical analysis in their coverage. There is also an educational article once per week and have a substantial back library. The news appears to be frank and fearless. Investment recommendations tend to favour themes with an eye on technical analysis. Not very thorough research but still useful. They also have “Stock Box” which is another feature I find very useful. I do not buy a stock without checking stock box( amongst other sources) . It costs about $600 PA. I subscribe. https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au (Paid) Another source I rate highly. The provide financial fundamental analysis coverage for smaller stocks (whi...

The following article appeared in the AFR 1 April 2017 by Tony Featherstone. (Please excuse the formatting, AFR make if difficult to cut n paste. Never the less, a good read The recent takeover bid for Spotless Group Holdings highlights the volatility of some sharemarket floats – and the opportunities for investors who avoid the hype around new listings and watch and wait for better value down the track. Spotless raised $994 million in an initial public offering (IPO) in May 2014. Shares in the private equity-backed firm tumbled from a $1.60 issue price to 70¢ earlier this month as the market lost confidence after earnings downgrades. Downer EDI's takeover bid drove Spotless shares 50 per cent higher in a day. Investors who bought Spotless earlier this year got the company for less than half its IPO price. Spotless is an extreme example of IPO volatility. Many floats rally in their first year as a listed company, then slump as reality sets when earnings forecasts...

I am subscribed to Port Phillip Publishing and they publish a free newsletter called Money Morning This is the link to the website where you can subscribe to Money Morning and other paid subscriptions www.portphillippublishing.com.au

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